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Benchmarking Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting Models on Neural Activity

Lu, Ziyu, Li, Anna J., Ladd, Alexander E., Matveev, Pascha, Deole, Aditya, Shea-Brown, Eric, Kutz, J. Nathan, Steinmetz, Nicholas A.

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Neural activity forecasting is central to understanding neural systems and enabling closed-loop control. While deep learning has recently advanced the state-of-the-art in the time series forecasting literature, its application to neural activity forecasting remains limited. To bridge this gap, we systematically evaluated eight probabilistic deep learning models, including two foundation models, that have demonstrated strong performance on general forecasting benchmarks. We compared them against four classical statistical models and two baseline methods on spontaneous neural activity recorded from mouse cortex via widefield imaging. Across prediction horizons, several deep learning models consistently outperformed classical approaches, with the best model producing informative forecasts up to 1.5 seconds into the future. Our findings point toward future control applications and open new avenues for probing the intrinsic temporal structure of neural activity.


Massively Scalable Inverse Reinforcement Learning in Google Maps

Barnes, Matt, Abueg, Matthew, Lange, Oliver F., Deeds, Matt, Trader, Jason, Molitor, Denali, Wulfmeier, Markus, O'Banion, Shawn

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Optimizing for humans' latent preferences remains a grand challenge in route recommendation. Prior research has provided increasingly general techniques based on inverse reinforcement learning (IRL), yet no approach has been successfully scaled to world-sized routing problems with hundreds of millions of states and demonstration trajectories. In this paper, we provide methods for scaling IRL using graph compression, spatial parallelization, and problem initialization based on dominant eigenvectors. We revisit classic algorithms and study them in a large-scale setting, and make the key observation that there exists a trade-off between the use of cheap, deterministic planners and expensive yet robust stochastic policies. We leverage this insight in Receding Horizon Inverse Planning (RHIP), a new generalization of classic IRL algorithms that provides fine-grained control over performance trade-offs via its planning horizon. Our contributions culminate in a policy that achieves a 16-24% improvement in global route quality, and to the best of our knowledge, represents the largest instance of IRL in a real-world setting to date. Benchmark results show critical benefits to more sustainable modes of transportation, where factors beyond journey time play a substantial role. We conclude by conducting an ablation study of key components, presenting negative results from alternative eigenvalue solvers, and identifying opportunities to further improve scalability via IRL-specific batching strategies.